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2016 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

It's the one category "The People v. O.J. Simpson" can't win, so who's going to be representing for their series?

The Leftovers Season 2 Regina KingThe Leftovers Season 2 Regina King

Van Redin/HBO

Quick Hits

  • Last Year’s Winner: Regina King, “American Crime”
  • Was It an Upset? Yes. Vegas money was on Sarah Paulson (“American Horror Story”) or Mo’nique (“Bessie”).
  • Still Eligible? Yes
  • Hot Streak: Kathy Bates has the most nominations in this category of any actress ever, with six nods spanning from 1996 to 2015.
  • Fun Fact: Olivia Cole was the first black actress to be nominated in this category and the first black actress to win. Her role? Mathilda in “Roots,” a miniseries being remade in 2016.

READ MORE: Review: ‘American Crime’ Season 2 Makes Hate Too Great a Burden to Bear

Two years ago, no one really expected Kathy Bates to win this category, and last year few prognosticators picked Regina King to walk away with the trophy. So who should we bet on in 2016? Will there be another surprise? Will one of these two past winners take it yet again?

Honestly, we’re a bit unsure. If there’s a surprise brewing, we sure hope Olivia Colman’s name gets called on Emmys night. Her impressive turn in “The Night Manager” has left a mark yet to fade. King sure deserves another trophy, if not for “American Crime” than for her body of work in the 2015-16 season. (Her supporting part on “The Leftovers” — just, wow.) Bates and Sarah Paulson were solid yet again in “American Horror Story,” and Melissa Leo brought everything she’s got to a relatively small role in “All the Way.”

But it’s Jean Smart who’s got our pick, as “Fargo” has to win something, even in the year of “People v. O.J. Simpson.” Smart’s turn leant so much to the limited series, as the grieving widow and crime family matriarch balanced conflicting emotions and unparalleled wisdom when trying to lead her crew out of the darkness. We’ll see if she gets her just rewards, but anything can happen.

Below are IndieWire TV Critic Ben Travers’ predictions for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie, which will be updated throughout awards season. Make sure to keep checking IndieWire for all the latest buzz and highlights from the 2016 race, and read the rest of the predictions in all the categories, as well.

READ MORE: ‘Fargo’ or ‘The People v. O.J. Simpson’? You Have to Pick a Side: IndieWire Emmys Endorsements (Limited Series)

The Nominees:

  1. Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Hotel”
  2. Olivia Colman, “The Night Manager”
  3. Regina King, “American Crime”
  4. Melissa Leo, “All the Way”
  5. Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Hotel”
  6. Jean Smart, “Fargo”

Will Win: Jean Smart, “Fargo”
Could Win: Regina King, “American Crime”
Should Win: Olivia Colman, “The Night Manager”

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