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Oscar Predictions 2017: Best Original Screenplay

"Moonlight" and "Loving" moving to Adapted opened up the Original Screenplay race, which is "La La Land" vs. "Manchester By the Sea." (Updated February 22, 2017.)

“Manchester by the Sea”

The Academy moves of Barry Jenkins’ “Moonlight” and Jeff Nichols’ “Loving” to Adapted Screenplay opened up two valuable slots in the Original Screenplay category, allowing Kenneth Lonergan’s New England family saga “Manchester by the Sea” and Damien Chazelle’s Hollywood musical reboot “La La Land” more room to breathe against their competitors.  “Manchester” beat “Moonlight” in the Original category at the BAFTAs, while Jenkins beat Chazelle and Lonergan at the WGA. Chazelle was nominated for “Whiplash,” and Lonergan for “Gangs of New York” and “You Can Count On Me.”

Also landing an original WGA nod was Taylor Sheridan for his Texas western “Hell or High Water.” Moving into the fray was writer-director Mike Mills’ “20th Century Women” and WGA-ineligible “The Lobster.”

While “La La Land” is a strong contender throughout its 14 nominated categories, this one could go to respected comeback playwright-screenwriter-director Lonergan.


1. “Manchester by the Sea” (Kenneth Lonergan)
2.”La La Land” (Damien Chazelle)
3. “Hell or High Water” (Taylor Sheridan)
4. “20th Century Women” (Mike Mills)
5. “The Lobster” (Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos)

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