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2019 Oscars: Best Picture Predictions

Fox's "Bohemian Rhapsody" could sneak into the Best Picture race, as Marvel's "Black Panther" is poised to continue to make history. Updated 1/10/19.

roma

“Roma”

Netflix

With the fall festivals behind us, as the race comes into focus, it’s not the specialty films that are roaring the loudest but more mainstream fare. This year it looks like the Oscars will be well-positioned to function without a host, as the popular movies could be the real draw.

Regular awards player Fox Searchlight boasts two contenders: Yorgos Lanthimos’ buzzy New York Film Festival opener “The Favourite” stars Best Actress contender Olivia Colman as crazy Queen Anne, and Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone as the equally fierce ladies of the court who manipulate her. Nominations look likely throughout the categories.

"The Favourite"

“The Favourite”

Fox Searchlight

Also earning strong festival response is Marielle Heller’s follow-up to “Diary of a Teenage Girl,” New York comedy “Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” adapted by Nicole Holofcener from Lee Israel’s memoir and starring Melissa McCarthy in a full-on dramatic role as a sad-sack author-turned-con artist, with entertaining and touching Richard E. Grant as her drunken foil. Heller’s could be the only film directed by a woman to make the Best Picture cut.

Netflix picked up “Gravity” Best Director-winner Alfonso Cuaron’s return to Mexico, black-and-white 70 mm family drama “Roma,” which earned raves around the country, and is Mexico’s Oscar entry. “Roma” could mark Netflix’s first Best Picture contender, and could land multiple nominations.

Amy Adams and Christian Bale in “Vice”

Annapurna

Other contenders include distributor Annapurna and Oscar-perennial Plan B (“12 Years a Slave,” “The Big Short”), which are partnering on the return of two writer-directors, Barry Jenkins (from “Moonlight” to James Baldwin story “If Beale Street Could Talk”) and Adam McKay (from “The Big Short” to Dick Cheney biopic “Vice”).

Leading the studio fray is Warner Bros.’ critically-hailed blockbuster ($397 million worldwide), Bradley Cooper’s retelling of backstage musical “A Star is Born,” starring himself and Best Actress contender Lady Gaga and likely first-time supporting nominee Sam Elliott. Also in the hunt with a SAG ensemble nomination as well as Guild support is big-budget “Crazy Rich Asians,” which scored $238 million worldwide.

“Green Book”

Universal Pictures

Three studio entries come from the Universal family: Spike Lee’s Grand Prix-winning Cannes entry and summer hit “BlacKkKlansman” (Focus Features), “La La Land” Oscar-winner Damien Chazelle’s intimate epic “First Man,” which is anchored by sensitive performances by Ryan Gosling as Apollo 11 astronaut Neil Armstrong and Claire Foy as his wife, which faltered at the box office. Peter Farrelly’s true 60s two-hander “Green Book,” starring Mahershala Ali and Viggo Mortensen, won the audience award at Toronto and three Golden Globes, and is picking up steam at the box office.

Fox’s “Bohemian Rhapsody,” despite a fired director (Bryan Singer”), a lip-syncing Rami Malek as flamboyant rock star Freddy Mercury of Queen, and mediocre reviews (Metascore: 49) is so popular that it is scoring major Guild nominations and a Globe win for Malek.

“A Star is Born”

Last year, Patty Jenkins’ DC comic-book movie “Wonder Woman” far exceeded expectations of quality, critical acclaim, and box office, but was shut out of the Oscar race. That won’t happen with Marvel’s “Black Panther,” which is poised to ride the swells of worldwide acclaim and blockbuster status to become a Best Picture Oscar contender. It was always going to be a challenge for Disney to push this Marvel superhero success beyond the technical categories, but Disney hired respected Oscar-pusher Strategy PR to do just that. Their mission: to convince critics, guilds, and Oscar voters that Ryan Coogler’s achievement rises to the level of art.

Comic-book epics rarely yield major Oscar nominations. Heath Ledger’s posthumous win as Supporting Actor for Christopher Nolan’s “Batman” entry “The Dark Knight” in 2008 was an anomaly; if superhero movies are in the running, it’s usually for VFX and technical nods. They even win some, especially with the original iteration, before it’s a full-fledged franchise (See: the original Dick Donner “Superman,” Tim Burton’s first “Batman,” “Dick Tracy,” “Men in Black,” and “Spider-Man 2”).

At the 2018 Oscars, for example, Fox scored the first-ever Adapted Screenplay nod for a comic-book superhero movie (X-Men spinoff “Logan”) as well as the expected VFX recognition for the latest “Planet of the Apes” installment (Weta Digital). Scoring only technical nods were Lucasfilm (“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”), Disney (live-action remake “Beauty and the Beast”), and Marvel (blockbuster “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2″).

“Black Panther” earned top reviews (Metascore: 87) and like “Wonder Woman,” it was the first of its kind, with huge pent-up demand across the globe. Adjusted for inflation, “Black Panther” sold more tickets in North America than the first iterations of “Spider-Man,” “Batman” and “Wonder Woman.” So far the movie has grossed more than $1.3 billion worldwide, heading for the top 30 of all time (with adjusted grosses).

Among likely technical nods for “Black Panther” are this year’s historic Oscar nominee, cinematographer Rachel Morrison (“Mudbound”), two-time Best Costume Design Oscar nominee Ruth E. Carter (“Amistad,” “Malcolm X”), and production designer Hannah Beachler, as well as hair and makeup, score, editing, sound and visual effects.

Landing major nominations requires a perception of gravitas. “Fruitvale Station” and “Creed” writer-director Coogler’s thoughtful screenplay, adapted from the comics with Joe Robert Cole (“American Crime Story”), does just that, rising well beyond the usual Marvel superhero mythology. “Black Panther” raises many questions about the role and responsibility of a rich nation in the world, as well as the ultimate consequences of neglecting and abandoning the less fortunate among us. “Black Panther” is widely considered to be the best Marvel movie ever made.

“Black Panther”

Marvel/Disney

Coogler, who is only 31, could rise to the level of perceived auteur, even if he’s adapting an established comic-book title. Who else could have pulled this off? Of course, people said the same thing about Jenkins. But what she delivered was perfectly calibrated mainstream entertainment. “Black Panther” is something more: It’s historic, crashing Hollywood barriers that should have been shattered decades ago.

Another valid comparison is not to “Wonder Woman,” but to Jordan Peele’s low-budget phenomenon “Get Out” (Blumhouse/Universal), which launched at Sundance 2017 and racked up $255 million worldwide, breaking out of its horror-thriller genre limitations to wind up with four Oscar nominations including Picture, Director, Original Screenplay (which won), and Actor (Daniel Kaluuya). With its $200-million tentpole scale and scope, “Black Panther” has the potential to notch a lot more.

Will any films from women directors break into the Best Picture race? The only one is Marielle Heller’s true story “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” starring Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant. Debra Granik’s survival drama “Leave No Trace” (June 29, Bleecker Street) scored decent box office as well as among the year’s best reviews.And veteran Mimi Leder (“Deep Impact”) returned to film from directing television to helm “On the Basis of Sex” (December 25, Focus Features), a commercial crowdpleaser.

Listings are in alphabetical order.

 Frontrunners:

“BlacKkKlansman” (Spike Lee)
“Black Panther” (Ryan Coogler)
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?” (Marielle Heller)
“The Favourite” (Yorgos Lanthimos)
“First Man” (Damien Chazelle)
“Green Book” (Peter Farrelly)
“Roma” (Alfonso Cuaron)
“A Star is Born” (Bradley Cooper)
“Vice” (Adam McKay)

Contenders:

“Bohemian Rhapsody” (Bryan Singer)
“Crazy Rich Asians” (Jon M. Chu)
“If Beale Street Could Talk” (Barry Jenkins)
“A Quiet Place” (John Krasinski)

Long Shots:

“Leave No Trace” (Debra Granik)
“Mary Poppins Returns” (Rob Marshall)
“Widows” (Steve McQueen)

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