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‘Avengers: Infinity War’ Should Drop More Than 50% This Weekend — and That’s Great News

The box-office smash should also gross more than $450 million in 10 days, outpacing all other Marvel movies to date.

Marvel Studios' AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR..L to R: War Machine/James Rhodes (Don Cheadle), Captain America/Steve Rogers (Chris Evans) and Black Widow (Scarlett Johansson)..Photo: Chuck Zlotnick..©Marvel Studios 2018

“Avengers: Infinity War”

Marvel Studios

In its first week, “Avengers: Infinity War” grossed $338.4 million in North America. By comparison, “Black Panther” was at $292 million after its first week; “The Avengers” in May 2012 reached $304 million adjusted. “Avengers: Age of Ultron” made $251 million adjusted.

High-end grossing films (particularly sequels) tend to have steeper drops, so here’s a rundown of second-weekend precedents: “Avengers” fell 50 percent, “Ultron” 59 percent, “Black Panther” 45 percent. The smaller drop for “Panther” suggested a long and strong run, and it remains in the top 10 nearly three months later.

We predicted a first-week gross of about $340 million, close to the mark. A 59 percent drop — $103 million, similar to “Ultron” — would bring it to $443 million Sunday night. I’d predict a lower drop of about 55 percent, providing a $116 million three-day gross and $457 million through its second weekend. “The Avengers” adjusted was $420 million in 10 days, “Ultron” $333 million, “Panther” $404 million.

By comparison, it would fall well behind “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” which stood at a little under $569 million adjusted at the 10-day mark. No shame there, however; that film had the benefit of a Christmas release.

What helps “Infinity War,” and could nudge it to an even better hold, is the lack of major new studio competition. Between Focus’ well-received Jason Reitman comedy “Tully” starring Charlize Theron, Cinco de Mayo holiday tie-in “Overboard,” and crime thriller “Bad Samaritan,” they should do less than 20 percent of the lowest second-weekend estimates for “Infinity War.”

"Deadpool 2"

“Deadpool 2”

With the strong weekdays projected, “Infinity War” remains on track to reach $550 million after three weeks and perhaps as much as $600 million. That might suggest a total gross that easily tops the first “Avengers” ($706 million adjusted) and “Black Panther” (which will end up somewhere between $700 million-$710 million). However, much will depend on its ability to sustain interest after “Deadpool 2” and Disney rival “Solo: A Star Wars Story.”

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