You will be redirected back to your article in seconds
Back to IndieWire

SAG Awards Predictions: Who Will Win for Film and TV in 2019

Who will the actors spotlight during their time in the awards season's sun?

Glenn Close and Lady Gaga24th Annual Critics' Choice Awards, Press Room, Barker Hanger, Los Angeles, USA - 13 Jan 2019

Glenn Close and Lady Gaga

Rob Latour/REX/Shutterstock

On the film side, SAG nominations are often seen as a bellwether for the Oscar race, because the Academy acting branch dominates the votes. But this year’s SAG nominations don’t overlap with the Oscar race as much as usual; SAG voting closes Friday. While “A Star is Born,” “Black Panther,” “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “BlacKkKlansman” could build some momentum for their Oscar bids by winning SAG Ensemble, “Crazy Rich Asians” didn’t score any Oscar nominations, and PGA Award-winner “Green Book” didn’t make Ensemble, along with “Vice,” which is poised for two big wins, and “The Favourite,” which boasts three strong SAG contenders. And Academy actors showed defiant support for non-SAG nominee “Roma” by voting in non-pro Yalitza Aparicio and Marina de Tavira.  — Anne Thompson

As for TV, the SAGs are yet another opportunity for shows to stand out in the ever-growing lineup of content. Winners get to remind viewers not only do they exist, but they’re part of TV’s elite club. With that aspect in mind, the SAG Awards also provide a chance to solidify your show’s prestige brand, as a number of nominees look to build awards momentum leading up to the Emmys. Netflix’s “The Kominsky Method” is hot after the Golden Globes and needs another win to solidify its freshman sensation status (which is a weird thing to say about a show led by two seniors), while “Ozark” is looking to move from “dark horse contender” to “regular nominee” in the overall awards game. “Sharp Objects” and “Escape at Dannemora” look for an edge leading into the Emmy Limited Series race, and new series like “Maniac” and “Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan” hope a trophy in January means they’ll be taken seriously come September. That, or it’ll remind a few SAG viewers to watch their shows. — Ben Travers

“Vice”

Annapurna

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”

Will Win: Christian Bale, “Vice”
Could Win: Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Should Win: Christian Bale, “Vice”

The Globe and Critics Choice winner should continue his winning streak through the Oscars; he’s this year’s Gary Oldman, only this time he gained 45 pounds on top of elaborate prosthetic makeup. Rami Malek, who transformed himself into Queen star Freddie Mercury, could steal a win from SAG actors, who are more mainstream than the Academy.

“The Favourite”

Fox Searchlight

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Will Win: Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Could Win: Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Should Win: Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”

It’s a close race between Critics Choice winners Glenn Close and Lady Gaga — with Globe comedy winner Olivia Colman coming on strong from the outside.

Mahershala Ali - Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture - 'Green Book'76th Annual Golden Globe Awards, Press Room, Los Angeles, USA - 06 Jan 2019

Mahershala Ali at the 2019 Golden Globe Awards

Rob Latour/REX/Shutterstock

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Timothee Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Will Win: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Could Win: Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Should Win: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”

Whatever is wrong with PGA-winner “Green Book,” it’s not Mahershala Ali, who is widely admired for always taking the high road. Grant is a popular choice, too, but it’s Ali’s to lose.

Vice Amy Adams Christian Bale

Amy Adams and Christian Bale in “Vice”

Annapurna

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

Amy Adams, “Vice”
Emily Blunt, “A Quiet Place”
Margot Robbie, “Mary Queen of Scots”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Will Win: Amy Adams, “Vice”
Could Win: Amy Adams, “Vice”
Should Win: Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

With “If Beale Street Could Talk” Critics Choice winner Regina King not in the running and the two “The Favourite” actresses knocking each other out, Adams should win this by a mile.

"Black Panther"

“Black Panther”

Marvel

Best Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees:

“Ant-Man and the Wasp”
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
“Black Panther”
“Mission: Impossible – Fallout”

Will Win: “Black Panther”
Could Win: “Mission: Impossible – Fallout”
Should Win: “Mission: Impossible – Fallout”

This is a good place for popular Marvel movie “Black Panther” to notch a win, but “Mission: Impossible — Fallout” is a stunning stunt movie.

“A Star Is Born”

Clay Enos

Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees:

“A Star Is Born”
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Crazy Rich Asians”

Will Win: “A Star Is Born”
Could Win: “Black Panther”
Should Win: “BlacKkKlansman”

“A Star is Born” should get this, but the race is wide open. “Black Panther” and “BlacKkKlansman” could knock each other out.

Best Actor in a Drama Series

"Ozark" Season 2 Jason Bateman Netflix

Jason Bateman in “Ozark”

Jessica Miglio/Netflix

Nominees:

Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”
Joseph Fiennes, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
John Krasinski, “Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan”
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”

Will Win: Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
Could Win: Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”
Should Win: Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”

With “Ozark” looking to assert itself as a dominant Emmy player, the Netflix drama could get a big boost from the SAG Awards. After all, voters liked it to the tune of four nominations, doubling its total from last year. Bateman is the face of the series, too, and the actor/director/producer could benefit if the acting community responded better to Season 2 than critics did. That being said, it’s a fairly open race. Sterling K. Brown is still incredibly well-liked and delivering more solid work, more recently, than any of his competition. He’s the defending champion in this category, but Bateman has never won (for “Ozark” or “Arrested Development”). Odenkirk took home a SAG Award for his ensemble work in “Breaking Bad,” but perhaps this is the year someone finally recognizes his individual work in “Better Call Saul” — despite being regularly nominated, he’s yet to win the SAG Award, Golden Globe, or Emmy for his lead role.

Best Actress in a Drama Series

Eve Polastri (Sandra Oh)

Sandra Oh in “Killing Eve”

Nick Briggs/BBC America

Nominees:

Julia Garner, “Ozark”
Laura Linney, “Ozark”
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve”
Robin Wright, “House of Cards”

Will Win: Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve”
Could Win: Laura Linney, “Ozark”
Should Win: Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve”

As Oh looks to build momentum following her Golden Globes win, it’s her SAG Award to lose. But it’s far from a lock. Elisabeth Moss was defeated by Claire Foy last year, so she’s yet to be rewarded by the SAGs for her astonishing turn in “The Handmaid’s Tale.” Of course, since she didn’t win when she had momentum, that could mean another Netflix upset is looming: No, Robin Wright won’t overcome the “House of Cards” bias, but Laura Linney might be able to snag the trophy if she doesn’t split too many votes with her co-star, Julia Garner. Linney had a bigger role in Season 2, so she gets the edge over Garner — if not quite Oh, a former winner.

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Editorial use only. No book cover usage.Mandatory Credit: Photo by HBO/Kobal/REX/Shutterstock (9695990w)Henry Winkler, Bill Hader"Barry" (Seasdon 1) TV Series - 2018

Bill Hader directing Henry Winkler in “Barry”

HBO/Kobal/REX/Shutterstock

Nominees:

Alan Arkin, “The Kominsky Method”
Michael Douglas, “The Kominsky Method”
Bill Hader, “Barry”
Tony Shalhoub, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Henry Winkler, “Barry”

Will Win: Bill Hader, “Barry”
Could Win: Michael Douglas, “The Kominsky Method”
Should Win: Bill Hader, “Barry”

With all the nominees coming from shows with ensemble nominations as well, it’s difficult to gauge momentum between “The Kominsky Method” and “Barry.” Sure, Michael Douglas just took home the Golden Globe, but Bill Hader and Henry Winkler won at the Emmys. Douglas won five years ago for “Behind the Candelabra,” while these are Hader and Winkler’s first solo nominations. Both shows are similar in that they deal with actors talking about acting, learning to act, and teaching acting in Hollywood, so it’s a matter of who stuck out the most among the thespian-friendly turns. It’s a toss-up, but Hader gets the edge for quite simply giving the better performance.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Season 2 Rachel Brosnahan

Rachel Brosnahan in “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

Amazon

Nominees:

Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Alison Brie, “GLOW”
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Jane Fonda, “Grace and Frankie”
Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie”

Will Win: Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Could Win: Alison Brie, “GLOW”
Should Win: Alison Brie, “GLOW”

Similar to Elisabeth Moss in the drama race, Rachel Brosnahan didn’t win the SAG Award last year — heck, she wasn’t even nominated. Perhaps it took the large SAG-AFTRA membership body a little time to catch up on “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” but now that they have, it’s got two contenders: Brosnahan, who’s racked up trophies at the Golden Globes (twice), the Emmys, and more, and Alex Borstein, who won the Emmy last September. With four nods under its belt, “Maisel” is now undoubtedly a strong SAG contender, so give the edge to the lead actor here (and cross your fingers Alison Brie stops being ignored).

Best Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series

THE ASSASSINATION OF GIANNI VERSACE: AMERICAN CRIME STORY "The Man Who Would Be Vogue" Episode 1 (Airs Wednesday. January 17, 10:00 p.m. e/p) -- Pictured: Darren Criss as Andrew Cunanan. CR: Jeff Daly/FX

Darren Criss in “American Crime Story”

Jeff Daly/FX

Nominees:

Antonio Banderas, “Genius: Picasso”
Darren Criss, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Hugh Grant, “A Very English Scandal”
Anthony Hopkins, “King Lear”
Bill Pullman, “The Sinner”

Will Win: Darren Criss, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Could Win: Hugh Grant, “A Very English Scandal”
Should Win: Anthony Hopkins, “King Lear”

Awareness and accessibility are huge factors in winning a SAG Award, and a few of these nominees have an edge in both. Though “King Lear” and “A Very English Scandal” are available via Amazon Prime, neither has made huge waves in the zeitgeist — even with favorable reviews for both and awards attention for the latter. Still, Hugh Grant worked the campaign trail pretty hard, and his Oscar snub for “Paddington 2” demands justice. “The Sinner” didn’t make as many waves in Season 2 as its freshman run, and the same can be said for “Genius: Picasso.” That leaves “American Crime Story,” which earned three nominations (and a win for Sarah Paulson) in its first season before snagging just two nominations this year. Still, the follow-up entry in Ryan Murphy’s anthology series has done better than expected at awards shows, and its availability on Netflix means even more people have caught up with it by now. Criss should expect to add another trophy to his suddenly crowded mantle.

Best Actress in a TV Movie or Limited Series

Sharp Objects - Cherry, Episode 6 Amy Adams 2

Amy Adams in “Sharp Objects”

Anne Marie Fox/HBO

Nominees:

Amy Adams, “Sharp Objects”
Patricia Arquette, “Escape at Dannemora”
Patricia Clarkson, “Sharp Objects”
Penelope Cruz, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Emma Stone, “Maniac”

Will Win: Amy Adams, “Sharp Objects”
Could Win: Patricia Arquette, “Escape at Dannemora”
Should Win: Amy Adams, “Sharp Objects”

In the past few weeks, a surprising showdown has emerged in the Lead Actress category for Limited Series. Many expected Amy Adams to walk away with a Golden Globe for “Sharp Objects,” but Patricia Arquette pulled the upset. Then the two tied at the Critics Choice Awards, and now it’s up to the SAGs to have the last word on which actor stands as the Emmy frontrunner. So who’s got the edge? Similar to the Oscars, Adams has six solo SAG nominations and zero wins. (She won as part of the “American Hustle” ensemble, though she wasn’t nominated herself.) That means she’s due, but perhaps more importantly, it means the SAG voters do like her and respond to her work. That she’s a dual nominee this year could work in her favor — she’s gotta win once, right? — or it could mean she only wins for one category. Meanwhile, this is Arquette’s fifth solo nomination, but she already won for “Boyhood.” Does that mean she can’t win again? Of course not, especially if the SAGs give Adams her due over on the film side. And yet, after all that, there are still two big wild cards in the race: Patricia Arquette killed it in “Sharp Objects” and actually won the Golden Globe, while Emma Stone is another dual nominee who could steal a trophy for Netflix’s “Maniac.” They might be long shots, but there’s still a path to victory for them both.

Best Ensemble Cast in a Drama Series

"Ozark" Season 2 Laura Linney Jason Bateman

Laura Linney and Jason Bateman in “Ozark”

Jessica Miglio/Netflix

Nominees:

“The Americans”
“Better Call Saul”
“The Handmaid’s Tale”
“Ozark”
“This Is Us”

Will Win: “Ozark”
Could Win: “This Is Us”
Should Win: “The Americans”

Following years of exclusion from just about every industry awards race there is, “The Americans” has finally been clicking with voters for its final season. It won the 2019 Golden Globe for Best Drama Series, snagged two Emmys for Lead Actor Matthew Rhys and writers Joe Weisberg and Joel Fields, and won best drama again — for its first nomination, again — at the Producer’s Guild Awards. Can the “Americans” train keep rolling? Considering none of its individual performers were nominated at the SAGs, “The Americans” doesn’t seem to have the steam of other contenders. Look for the more widely seen entries like “Ozark” or “This Is Us” (the defending champion) to step in and snag it.

Best Ensemble Cast in a Comedy Series

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Season 2 Marin Hinkle Rachel Brosnahan Tony Shaloub

Marin Hinkle, Rachel Brosnahan, and Tony Shaloub in “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

Nicole Rivelli / Amazon

Nominees:

“Atlanta”
“Barry”
“GLOW”
“The Kominsky Method”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

Will Win: “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Could Win: “The Kominsky Method”
Should Win: “GLOW”

It’s hard to imagine a world where “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” doesn’t walk away with this one. Folks have really come around to the Amazon hourlong comedy, so despite not being in the field last year, Season 2 should perform well. Perhaps if older voters really chime in for “The Kominsky Method” or the actors flock to the deep, actor-friendly fields of “Barry,” there could be a surprise. But it doesn’t seem that likely.

Best Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble — TV

GLOW

“GLOW”

Beth Dubber/Netflix

Nominees:

“GLOW”
“Marvel’s: Daredevil”
“Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan”
“The Walking Dead”
“Westworld”

Will Win: “GLOW”
Could Win: “Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan”
Should Win: “GLOW”

Considering the show operates as a showcase for stunts, while highlighting the difficulty of said stunts, “GLOW” seems like a safe bet here. Many of the actors spend a good chunk of interview time talking about the intense physical demands of recreating the “Gorgeous Ladies of Wrestling,” but perhaps the SAG voting body will stick with more traditional action fare over the half-hour Netflix comedy. “Game of Thrones” has won seven years in a row, and while it’s not eligible this year, that kind of adoration for fantasy fight scenes indicates “Westworld,” “Daredevil,” or “Jack Ryan” could benefit — given “Jack Ryan” is the only one with nominations elsewhere, let’s give it the spoiler’s edge.

The 25th Screen Actors Guild Awards air Sunday, January 27 at 8 p.m. ET on TNT and TBS. Megan Mullally is hosting this year’s ceremony.

Sign Up: Stay on top of the latest breaking film and TV news! Sign up for our Email Newsletters here.

This Article is related to: Awards and tagged , ,


Newswire