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Oscars 2020: Best Actress Predictions

As always, returning Oscar veterans like Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway will compete with newcomers this year. Updated August 22, 2019.

Clemency

“Clemency”

NEON

It’s early, but the time has come to lay the groundwork for the 2020 Oscars, which hit the calendar earlier than usual. Nominations are January 13, and the Oscar show is February 9. This year’s returning Oscar hopefuls include winners Meryl Streep (“Sophie’s Choice,” “Iron Lady”), Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”) and Charlize Theron (“Monster”).

L to R: "Jiang Yongbo, Aoi Mizuhara, Chen Han, Tzi Ma, Awkwafina, Li Xiang, Lu Hong, Zhao Shuzhen." Courtesy of Big Beach.

Jiang Yongbo, Aoi Mizuhara, Chen Han, Tzi Ma, Awkwafina, Li Xiang, Lu Hong, Diana Lin, “The Farewell”

Newcomers include Sundance breakout Awkwafina, star of Lulu Wang’s true-story family dramedy “The Farewell” (July 12) which A24 acquired for $6 million for the world (outside China). Shot in English and Mandarin and showcasing the acting chops of the “Crazy Rich Asians” star, “The Farewell” (Metascore: 87) is a strong summer performer for a foreign-language indie (American movies are not eligible for the foreign-language Oscar). Visibility will be key to this movie’s Oscar chances.

Neon acquired another Sundance breakout, writer-director Chinonye Chukwu’s prison drama “Clemency” (August, Metascore: 75) starring Alfre Woodard as a prison warden under duress. Hard-hitting social-action dramas have a long history with the Academy: think Oscar-winner “Dead Man Walking,” which earned a Best Actor nomination for Sean Penn and a Best Actress win for Susan Sarandon. Woodard hasn’t been nominated since her breakout role in “Cross Creek” in 1983. “Clemency” won the U.S. Dramatic Competition Grand Jury Prize before opening New Directors/New Films at MoMA and fall festival play.

Last year, Jordan Peele’s “Get Out” was such a critical and box-office zeitgeist hit that it yielded four 2018 Oscar nominations, including Best Actor Daniel Kaluuya and an Original Screenplay win for Peele. This year, Blumhouse’s follow-up horror release “Us” (March 22, Universal) delivered comparable reviews and box office. But the genre movie was also met with high expectations. Oscar-winner Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave”) is likeliest to return to the Oscar fray for her layered dual performance.

Also hitting a tad early is “The Hollow Crown” director Rupert Goold’s “Judy” (September 27, Roadside/LD Entertainment), which marks the return of Oscar-winning “Bridget Jones” star Renée Zellweger (“Cold Mountain”) as she takes on chanteuse Judy Garland. The film, written by Tom Edge (“The Crown”), covers the singer’s final 1968 concerts in London. Again, festival reception could dictate how much financier Mickey Liddell wants to back Roadside for an Oscar campaign. The distributor, with the right stuff, has delivered such Oscar-contenders as “Biutiful,” “Winter’s Bone,” and “Albert Nobbs.”

Anne HathawayWarner Bros Pictures & Village Roadshow Pictures' present The World Premiere of 'OCEAN'S 8' sponsored by Cartier & Johnnie Walker, New York, USA - 05 Jun 2018

Anne Hathaway

Patrick Lewis/Starpix/REX/Shutterstock

Anne Hathaway could emerge in Killer Films and Participant Media’s Todd Haynes ensemble drama, tentatively titled “Dark Water” (Focus Features), which shot in Cincinnati and costars producer Mark Ruffalo as well as Tim Robbins, Bill Camp and Bill Pullman. Matthew Carnahan and Mario Correra wrote the screenplay. Focus plans to release the film before year’s end.

Ready to make a splash is multi-talented British singer-actress Cynthia Erivo (“Widows”) who stars in the title role as abolitionist Harriet Tubman in Kasi Lemmons’ biographical drama, “Harriet,” another Focus Features fall release.

A likely Netflix fall contender is Steven Soderbergh’s “The Laundromat” (fall, Netflix), written by the Oscar-winning “Traffic” director’s long-time collaborator Scott Z. Burns and starring Oscar-winners Streep and Gary Oldman in a story inspired by the Panama Papers, about a group of journalists who discover and reveal 11.5 million files linking the world’s power elite to hidden bank accounts they used in order to skip paying taxes.

Bill Condon returns with late-life romance “The Good Liar” (New Line, November 15), about a con artist (Ian McKellen) who courts a wealthy widow (Helen Mirren). Both stars are Oscar bait; the question is how the movie is received by critics and audiences. It could be this year’s “Widows,” a film that leans into genre-thriller territory.

Landing a prime-time release slot is Melina Matsoukas’ “Queen & Slim” (November 27, Universal), written by James Frey and Lena Waithe and starring TV star Jodie Turner-Smith (“Nightflyers”) as a young woman who goes on a first date (Daniel Kaluuya) which turns unexpectedly violent when a cop pulls over their car. The story heads into “Sugarland Express” territory as they go on the run. Universal, which backed “Get Out,” “Us,” and “Straight Outta Compton,” will look for a breakout hit before they assess awards potential.

Greta Gerwig, left, and Noah Baumbach attend the premiere of "Mistress America" at the Landmark Sunshine Cinema, in New YorkNY Premiere of "Mistress America", New York, USA

Greta Gerwig, left, and Noah Baumbach

Syk/Invision/AP/REX/Shutterstock

Netflix is playing multiple fall festivals with “Marriage Story,” a relationship comedy from New York writer-director Noah Baumbach, which boasts two juicy lead performances from Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson as a couple going through a fractious divorce. Marvel star Johannson (Black Widow, “Avengers: Endgame”) is overdue for some Oscar cred; Netflix will give this film the full awards treatment.

Hitting the year-end holiday season is Baumbach’s partner Greta Gerwig’s follow-up to Oscar-nominated “Lady Bird,” the writer-director’s adaptation of the Louisa May Alcott children’s classic “Little Women” (December 25, Sony). Gerwig reunites with “Lady Bird” stars Saoirse Ronan and Timothée Chalamet as Jo and Laurie. Ronan could score her fourth Oscar nomination.

Also heading into the holidays, Jay Roach’s Roger Ailes docudrama “Bombshell” (December 20, Lionsgate) boasts an embarrassment of rich roles for the actresses playing the women who took on the toxic male culture of Fox News. The main adversary for the Fox News czar (John Lithgow) is Megyn Kelly, played by Charlize Theron, who could earn her third nomination.

Universal is pushing hard for “Les Miserables” director Tom Hooper’s latest VFX-packed musical extravaganza, “Cats” (December 20). Front and center is Oscar-winner Jennifer Hudson (“Dreamgirls”), who could notch her second nod as Grizabella.

As ever, contenders are listed in alphabetical order; no film will be deemed a frontrunner until I have seen it.

Frontrunners:

Awkwafina (“The Farewell”)
Lupita Nyong’o (“Us”)
Alfre Woodard (“Clemency”)

Contenders:

Cynthia Erivo (“Harriet”)
Anne Hathaway (“Dark Water”)
Jennifer Hudson (“Cats”)
Scarlett Johansson (“Marriage Story”)
Helen Mirren (“The Good Liar”)
Saoirse Ronan (“Little Women”)
Meryl Streep (“The Laundromat”)
Charlize Theron (“Bombshell”)
Jodie Turner-Smith (“Queen & Slim”)

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