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‘Jurassic World: Dominion’ Could Lead to the First $1 Billion Box-Office Month Since 2019

With $143 million, dino-might help save theaters from extinction — especially with 'Top Gun: Maverick' as the wingman.

Jurassic World Dominion

“Jurassic World: Dominion”

Universal/screenshot

Led by the better-than-expected $143 million opening gross for “Jurassic World: Dominion” (Universal) and $50 million for “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount) in its third week. All told, they accounted for 93 percent of the $208 million weekend total. That’s not great news for the long term, but at least the theaters’ theatrical distribution models seems to be working.

Through 12 days of June, grosses are just about the same as for the same period in 2019, the last normal year. Including estimates for this weekend, the month so far has totaled $432 million, down only $3 million from 2019. That doesn’t guarantee the rest of the month will follow, but it’s a breakthrough result.

Our four-week rolling comparison to the same period three years ago now stands at 85 percent. That’s a record high since we began this gauge and a major step in the right direction. However, while this weekend is the year’s second best, it also saw only two films gross over $5 million. In 2019, five films took in over $13 million, and seven more than $7 million.

The sixth Jurassic film continued the franchise’s stellar performance. “Dominion” was nearly even in gross to the 2018 “Fallen Kingdom” ($148 million), helped by higher ticket prices along with more premium presentations. Scathing “Dominion” reviews, held back to the eve of release, created concern that it might open around $125 million. Worldwide, with multiple territories opening a week earlier, it stands at just under $400 million.

The A- Cinemascore (down from A for “Fallen Kingdom”) indicates the film satisfied the throngs. The Saturday drop from Thursday/Friday combined results was 22 percent, higher than 15 percent in 2018.

Tom Cruise plays Capt. Pete "Maverick" Mitchell in Top Gun: Maverick from Paramount Pictures, Skydance and Jerry Bruckheimer Films.

“Top Gun: Maverick”

Paramount Pictures

With a 44 percent drop, “Maverick” had the best third weekend gross since “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” which fell on New Year’s weekend. That bodes extremely well for the “Top Gun” sequel. In 17 days, it tripled the gross of its first three days — a strong multiple for any film that opens over $100 million.

Assuming similar, below-normal drops continue, “Maverick” is on track to gross $600 million domestic. (It is already at $700 million worldwide). By Monday, when it passes $400 million, it will surpass “Doctor Strange in the Multi-Verse of Madness” (Disney) as 2022’s top grossing film. (The latter still placed #3 for the weekend.)

Both “Doctor Strange” and “Maverick” were great kickstarts for the summer and “Dominion” came through. The month has overperformed to date and has a shot at reaching $1.1 billion, which would be close to the June average pre-Covid. “Dominion” will need a strong hold and net week’s Pixar release “Lightyear” (Disney) must thrive.

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.) and “The Black Phone” (Universal) — two non-franchise titles — remain question marks, but to be in a place where box office could match the $1.15 billion accrued in June 2019 — and become the first billion-dollar month since December 2019 — is a tremendous achievement.

That bounty does not extend to specialized releases. Second weekends of credible releases from major companies showed results far below pre-Covid. “The Phantom of the Open” (Sony Pictures Classics) expanded to 24 prime theaters, with only a $35,000 total. “Benediction” (Roadside Attactions) is wider, with 120 theaters grossing $45,000.

“Watcher”

IFC Films, exclusive to IndieWire

Two much wider releases of note, both in last week’s top 10, didn’t sustain. David Cronenberg’s “Crimes of the Future” dropped by two thirds. “Watcher” (IFC) fell 60 percent. Both had per-theater averages of around $500 and grosses of $375,000 or less. The hope for each is the theatrical exposure will elevate at-home revenues for both.

Note: If going by recorded figures, “Firestarter” (Universal) would  be in the top 10. However, most of its gross came as a second-feature drive-in dates with “Dominion.” That would mean double counting the gross, which already is included with the main feature.

The Top 10

1. Jurassic World Dominion (Universal) NEW – Cinemascore: A-; Metacritic: 37; Est. budget: $185 million

$143,370,000 in 4,676 theaters; PTA (per theater average): $30,661; Cumulative: $143,370,000

2. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) Week 3; Last weekend #1

$50,000,000 (-44%) in 4,262 (-489) theaters; PTA: $11,732; Cumulative: $393,344,000

3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Disney) Week 6; Last weekend #2

$4,884,000 (-47%) in 3,345 (-420) theaters; PTA: $1,297; Cumulative: $397,807,000

4. The Bob’s Burger Movie (Disney) Week 3; Last weekend #3

$2,338,000 (-50%) in 2,605 (-820) theaters; PTA: $683; Cumulative: $27,087,000

5. The Bad Guys (Universal) Week 8; Last weekend #4; also on PVOD

$2,250,000 (-33%) in 2,605 (-820) theaters; PTA: $931; Cumulative: $91,527,000

6. Downton Abbey (Focus) Week 4; Last weekend #5; also on PVOD

$1,650,000 (-48%) in 2,011 (-1,460) theaters; PTA: $820 Cumulative: $39,993,000

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) Week 12; Last weekend #6; also on PVOD

$1,271,000 (-37%) in  1,434 (no change) theaters; PTA: $886; Cumulative: $63,032,000

8. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (Paramount) Week 10; Last weekend #8; also on Paramount + and PVOD

$710,316 (-58%) in 1,067 (-1,025) theaters; PTA: $666; Cumulative: $189,837,000

9. Ante Sundharaniki () NEW

$(est.) 650,000 in 350 theaters; PTA: $1,857; Cumulative: $(est.) 650,000

10. Crimes of the Future (Neon) Week 2; Last weekend #9

$375,750 (-66%) in 712 (-21) theaters; PTA: $528; Cumulative: $2,007,000

 

Additional specialized/limited/independent releases

Lost Illusions (Music Box) NEW – Metacritic: 82; Festivals include: Venice 2021

$13,579 in 6 theaters; PTA: $2,263

Mad God (IFC) NEW – Metacritic: 70; Festivals include: Locarno 2021

$8,500 in 2 theaters; PTA: $4,250

Watcher (IFC) Week 2

$335,000 in 656 (-108) theaters; PTA: $511; Cumulative: $1,575,000

The Phantom of the Open (Sony Pictures Classics) Week 2

$35,600 in 24 (+18) theaters; PTA: $1,483; Cumulative: $67,778

Benediction (Roadside Attractions) Week 2

$45,560 in 120 (+29) theaters; PTA: $380; Cumulative: $131,004

Deep in the Heart (Fin & Fur) Week 2

$63,650 in 61 (-8) theaters; PTA: $1,043; Cumulative: $277,826

Neptune Frost (Kino Lorber) Week 2

$23,695 in 28 (+27) theaters; PTA: $; Cumulative: $54,062

A Chiara (Neon) Week 3

$8,615 in 28 (+8) theaters;  Cumulative: $31,822

Men (A24) Week 4

$70,949 in 216 (-775) theaters; Cumulative: $7,495,000

Family Camp (Roadside Attractions) Week 5

$35,380 in (-269) theaters;  Cumulative: $3,889,000

Jazzfest: A New Orleans Story (Sony Pictures Classics) Week 5

$23,515 in 117 (-185) theaters; Cumulative: $135,687

Petit Maman (Neon) Week 8

$8,300 in 23 (-8) theaters; Cumulative: $815,426

The Duke (Sony Pictures Classics) Week 8

$29,190 in 45 (-37) theaters; Cumulative: $1,454,000

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