Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie — Keaton’s First Win

Last Year’s Winner: Ewan McGregor, “Halston”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: “American Crime Story” is the only series to win in the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie category more than once, so there is a chance that Clive Owen could keep that streak going by being recognized for performance as President Bill Clinton in “Impeachment.”
Notable Ineligible Series: Tom Hiddleston, “Loki” (submitted as a Drama Series); Taron Egerton, “Black Bird” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Woody Harrelson and Justin Theroux, “The White House Plumbers” (the season will not air in time to be eligible)

This article will be updated throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2022 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting took place from June 16 to June 27, with the official Emmy nominations announced on Tuesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will be given out over two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 3 and Sunday, September 4, with an edited presentation on the ceremonies to be broadcast on Saturday, Sept. 10, at 8:00 p.m. ET on FXX. Finally, the 74rd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, September 12, and air live on NBC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

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The State of the Race

Apologies, but there is not much to say here. Michael Keaton is more than likely winning his first Emmy in September. While “The White Lotus” is the limited series that received the most Emmy nominations this year, it did not submit any of its actors as leads, which cleared the way for “Dopesick,” the second most nominated limited series, to win here.

And Keaton is completely deserving, with his turn as the conflicted Dr. Samuel Finnix being the heart of the affecting drama tackling opioid addiction. The only other Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie nominee here that is from a project also nominated for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series is Sebastian Stan for “Pam & Tommy,” but he is playing too antagonistic a role to win over a majority of voters. Stan’s committed portrayal of Tommy Lee is appreciated though.

As for the rest of the nominees’ chances, Oscar Isaac is sure to get some votes off the strength of the year he’s had, also starring in big budget projects like “Dune” and “Moon Knight” during the season. Unfortunately not enough people actually watched “Scenes From a Marriage” for him to gain the edge over the two aforementioned actors.

Himesh Patel absolutely has his fans, especially on the TV critic side of things, but “Station Eleven” also suffers from a lack of viewership. And while “The Staircase” and “Under The Banner of Heaven” did seem to capture the attention of a wide audience this summer, they both seem to have premiered too late into the eligibility period to really capture Emmy voters, so Colin Firth and Andrew Garfield have a small chance of receiving an Emmy for their respective true crime-inspired series.

Power Rankings:

1. Michael Keaton, “Dopesick” (Hulu)
2. Sebastian Stan, “Pam & Tommy” (Hulu)
3. Oscar Isaac, “Scenes From a Marriage” (HBO)
4. Himesh Patel, “Station Eleven” (HBO Max)
5. Colin Firth, “The Staircase” (HBO Max)
6. Andrew Garfield, “Under The Banner of Heaven” (FX)

Will Win: Michael Keaton, “Dopesick”
Could Win: Sebastian Stan, “Pam and Tommy” (Hulu)
Should Win: Michael Keaton, “Dopesick”