We will update these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2023 Oscar picks. Final voting is March 2 through 7, 2023. The 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
See our previous thoughts for what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here.
The State of the Race
While the 2023 Oscars nominations for Best Supporting Actor were not entirely predictable, the final five nominees have been moving up and down our list of contenders throughout awards season. Brian Tyree Henry finally made the cut for the quiet Apple TV+ film “Causeway” after years of standout roles in films like “If Beale Street Could Talk.” It was a surprise, but the vibes were always pointing that way, even if he wasn’t on every televised awards show leading up to the Academy voting period.
Still, it’s likely that his nomination is the win. There’s no question that this acting race boasts a clear frontrunner. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” star Ke Huy Quan has won more critics awards than any other acting nominee, and his moving acceptance speeches went viral after the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards. Being in front so early can be tricky, but the “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom” star’s comeback narrative makes him easy to root for.
In terms of a fellow nominee that could catch a second wind just in time for final Oscars voting, look no further than Judd Hirsch for his small but mighty role in Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans.” The 87-year-old is now the second oldest acting nominee to date, and also broke the record for longest gap between nominations; it’s been 42 years since his 1981 nod for “Ordinary People” in the same category. Many Oscar predictors assumed that his co-star Paul Dano, who has a much meatier role as the family patriarch, would score a nomination, and split the vote among “The Fabelmans” fans, but he did not. Dano’s absence could work in Hirsch’s favor, as the veteran actor is now the sole representative for the family drama within this category.
It is entirely possible that “The Banshees of Inisherin” is more popular with the Academy than both “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “The Fabelmans,” but dual Supporting Actor nominees Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan could steal votes from each other. It does seem like the elder actor Gleeson is the one to vote for, as Keoghan has spent most of the awards season on the bubble, but it would be tough to outstrip a contender as strong as Quan.
Nominees are listed below in order of likelihood they will win.
Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)