This article contains IndieWire’s past Best Supporting Actress predictions for the 2023 Oscars. We regularly update our predictions throughout awards season, and republish previous versions (like this one) for readers to track changes in how the Oscar race has changed. For the latest update on the frontrunners for the 95th Academy Awards, see our 2023 Oscars predictions hub.
We will update these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2023 Oscar picks. Final voting is March 2 through 7, 2023. The 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
See our previous thoughts for what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here.
The State of the Race
While 2022 was a banner year for films with all-female ensembles, many of those contenders knocked each other out on the way to Oscar nominations morning, from “Women Talking” to “The Woman King.”
Leading the pack of Best Supporting Actress nominees is Globe and Critics Choice winner Angela Bassett, the commanding mourning Queen Ramonda in global blockbuster “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” Bassett also brings her legacy to the table, having worked steadily since her near-win for Best Actress in 1994 for playing Tina Turner in “What’s Love Got to Do With It.”
But the bustling ensemble that is clearly the most popular with the actors branch: Oscar nominations leader “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” The never-nominated Jamie Lee Curtis landed a slot for her rollicking comedy turn as an IRS agent along with less-known Stephanie Hsu, who delivered both dramatic and comedic colors opposite Best Actress contender Michelle Yeoh as her mother, and Best Supporting Actor frontrunner Ke Huy Quan as her beleaguered father. Alas, Curtis and Hsu will likely split the Academy vote.
Meanwhile, the last two contenders in the running are “The Banshees of Inisherin” star Kerry Condon and “The Whale” star Hong Chau, who act opposite Best Actor frontrunners Colin Farrell and Brendan Fraser, respectively. Though “Banshees” may sell itself as a two-hander between its male leads, Condon’s Siobhan serves as the conscience of the film, making filmmaker Martin McDonagh’s poetic writing sing even in the moments where we hear only her voiceover.
Chau too plays a moral figure who hammers home the most relatable, affecting aspect of “The Whale”: trying to save someone who does not want to be saved. Having come extremely close to a Best Supporting Actress nomination before with her breakout role in the 2017 film “Downsizing,” Chau has only won more favor with audiences in recent years on projects like “Watchmen” and winter box office hit “The Menu.” Now may finally be her time.
Nominees are listed below in order of likelihood they will win.
Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Hong Chau (“The Whale”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
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