The Oscar race often takes a more concrete shape following the three major fall film festivals (Venice, Telluride, and Toronto), and this year is certainly no exception. Movies such as “Marriage Story,” “Ford v Ferrari,” “Parasite,” and “Jojo Rabbit” are Best Picture contenders, while performances by Adam Driver, Renée Zellweger, Joaquin Phoenix, and Scarlett Johansson are near-locks for acting nominations. But just because the majority of prestige fall festivals are over doesn’t mean the Oscar race is completely set in stone. With the New York Film Festival and then holiday movie season on the horizon, there are nearly a dozen titles no one has seen that could disrupt a wide variety of different Oscar categories.
So what’s coming up that has Oscar prognosticators on their toes? New efforts by awards darlings Martin Scorsese and Greta Gerwig are certainly being watched closely, while major studio efforts from Sam Mendes, Tom Hooper, and Ang Lee could exceed expectations and impress. The bottom line is that every Best Picture winner over the last decade had debuted at a festival by this point in their respective awards seasons, which means the following films have a tougher road facing them if they want to be serious contenders. Tough, but not impossible.
As festivals take a small hiatus before NYFF kicks off September 27, check out the 11 world premieres still to come that could shake up the current Oscar race.
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“The Irishman”
Image Credit: Netflix Perhaps the most high profile Oscar hopeful left to world premiere is Martin Scorsese’s Netflix original “The Irishman,” which will open the New York Film Festival before debuting in select theaters November 1 and hitting streaming November 27. Scorsese’s latest is a return to the gangster genre that reunites him with “Goodfellas” stars Robert De Niro and Joe Pesci. “Goodfellas” was nominated for six Oscars, including Best Picture and Best Director, and won Pesci the Academy Award for Best Supporting actor. Scorsese and De Niro have teamed on other Oscar nominees like “Taxi Driver” and “Raging Bull.” Throw in Al Pacino, a legend himself who is working with Scorsese for the first time, and what you have is a title with more Oscar pedigrees than many of its awards season rivals.
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“Dark Waters”
Image Credit: Michael Buckner/Variety/Shutterstock Focus Features surprised many by announcing August 26 that Todd Haynes’ true-life drama “Dark Waters” was finished and gearing up for a November 22 theatrical release. Haynes missed the Oscar season mark with his last release, “Wonderstruck,” but “Carol” (six Academy Award nominations), “I’m Not There” (one nomination for Cate Blanchett’s supporting performance), and “Far From Heaven” (four nominations) all made impressions on awards voters. Focus is lacking a major Oscar contender this year (“Harriet” underwhelmed at TIFF), so expect the studio to put its weight behind Haynes’ inside look at at an attorney (Mark Ruffalo) investigating a string of deaths tied to the DuPont chemical company. The supporting cast includes Anne Hathaway, Tim Robbins, Bill Camp, and Victor Garber.
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“Bombshell”
Image Credit: Lionsgate Putting Oscar winners Charlize Theron and Nicole Kidman on screen opposite Oscar nominee Margot Robbie will at the very least make Jay Roach’s “Bombshell” a must-see for awards voters. Charles Randolph’s script deals with female Fox News personnel and their allegations against founder Roger Ailes. Theron and Kidman star as real-life figures Megyn Kelly and Gretchen Carlson. Roach directed HBO’s political dramas “Recount” and “Game Change,” both of which won the Emmy for Outstanding Television Movie, and his last feature film “Trumbo” landed star Bryan Cranston an Oscar nomination for Best Actor. Lionsgate is opening “Bombshell” in theaters December 20.
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“Queen & Slim”
Image Credit: Universal Melina Matsoukas, a legendary filmmaker in the music video space (just watch Beyonce’s “Formation” or Rihanna’s “We Found Love” as two examples), graduates to feature film director with “Queen & Slim,” which has already been announced as the opening night selection for AFI FEST 2019 before Universal Pictures’ theatrical release starts November 27. The movie is a spin on the “Bonnie & Clyde” narrative, starring newcomer Jodie Turner-Smith and “Get Out” Oscar nominee Daniel Kaluuya as a couple forced on the run after shooting a white police officer in self defense. The script was written by Lena Waithe, who made history at the Emmys in 2017 by becoming the first black woman to win the prize for Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series thanks to the “Thanksgiving” episode of “Master of None.” Waithe and Kaluuya’s awards attention and Matsoukas’ breakout potential will certainly drive awards attention to the film before its world premiere.
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“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
Image Credit: Disney Can “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” follow in the footsteps of “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” by being a trilogy-ending blockbuster that dominates the Oscar race? It’s going to be tough, but at the very least “The Rise of Skywalker” should have no problem being a contender in the craft categories. The previous “Star Wars” movie, “The Last Jedi,” picked up four Oscar nominations (Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects), while trilogy-starter “The Force Awakens” landed five nominations (all the same four plus Best Film Editing). “Force Awakens” director J.J. Abrams is back behind the camera for “The Rise of Skywalker,” which is being billed as the end of the Skywalker Saga that started in 1977 with George Lucas’ original. That film earned a Best Picture nomination, and Lucasfilm is certainly hoping “The Rise of Skywalker” has what it takes to do the same.
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“Cats”
Image Credit: Universal Joke all you want about the viral-for-all-the-wrong-reasons teaser trailer for “Cats,” but filmmaker Tom Hooper isn’t one to overlook when it comes to Oscar season. Hooper’s “The King’s Speech” competed for 12 Oscars and won accolades for Best Picture, Best Director, and more. Hooper followed it up with his first musical adaptation “Les Misérables,” which divided film critics but still managed eight Oscar nominations (including Best Picture) and won Anne Hathaway the prize for Best Supporting Actress, and then “The Danish Girl” earned four nominations and a Best Supporting Actress win for Alicia Vikander. The bottom line is that “Cats” may look like a misfire from that first trailer but Hooper is an Oscar favorite with a proven history of nabbing nominations for an adaptation of a beloved musical. Oscar winner Jennifer Hudson leads the cast, while some eye-opening visual effects could make their way into crafts categories. All we’re saying is don’t count out “Cats” just yet. Universal opens the musical nationwide December 20.
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“Little Women”
Image Credit: Sony One of the final potential Oscar heavyweights dropping in 2019 is Greta Gerwig’s star-studded “Little Women” adaptation, which marks the writer-director’s first feature since “Lady Bird” earned five Oscar nominations (including Best Picture) and made Gerwig only the fifth woman director nominated for Best Director. “Little Woman” re-teams Gerwig with her “Lady Bird” Oscar nominee Saoirse Ronan and co-star Timothee Chalamet, an Oscar nominee the same year for “Call Me By Your Name. The supporting cast includes Florence Pugh, Emma Watson, Laura Dern, Bob Odenkirk, Meryl Streep, and Eliza Scanlan. The last film adaptation of “Little Women” (1994) earned three Oscar nominations, including a Best Actress bid for Winona Ryder, so there’s no telling how the 2019 remake can soar with Gerwig’s fresh voice and Oscar-ready ensemble. Sony is opening the film December 25.
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“1917”
Image Credit: Universal War movies are often catnip for Oscar voters, especially in the craft categories, so all eyes are watching Sam Mendes’ World War I thriller “1917” closely to see just how much an awards season disruptor it turned out to be. Mendes, who’s celebrating the 20th anniversary of his five-time Oscar winner “American Beauty” this year (including Best Picture and Best Director), hired 14-time Oscar-nominated cinematographer Roger Deakins (a winner for “Blade Runner 2049”) to shoot the war movie, the majority of which has been shot to resemble one long continuous take (similar to Best Picture and Best Director winner “Birdman”). If Mendes and Deakins can pull off what on paper sounds like a potential war movie classic, there’s no telling how big of an Oscar contender it could become. Universal is opening the movie December 25.
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“The Good Liar”
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Footage from Bill Condon’s drama “The Good Liar” impressed film journalists at CinemaCon in April and led some to believe the movie could be a potential awards spoiler depending on how the races pan out. After all, the Warner Bros. release pairs Ian McKellen (a two-time Oscar nominee for “Gods and Monsters” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring”) opposite Helen Mirren (a four-time Oscar nominee and a Best Actress winner for “The Queen”) in the dramatically rewarding story of an elderly conman who falls for the woman he is ordered to scam (the book by Nicholas Sear is critically acclaimed). Condon won an Oscar for writing “Gods and Monsters” and directed Jennifer Hudson to an Oscar win for “Dreamgirls.” Warner Bros. will release “The Good Liar” in theaters November 15.
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“Frozen 2”
Image Credit: Disney Disney and Pixar’s critically beloved “Toy Story 4” has been the Oscar frontrunner for Best Animated Feature since its debut this summer, but “Frozen II” could steal its thunder when it opens nationwide November 22. The animated musical arrives in theaters six years after the original “Frozen” became a zeitgeist-breaking blockbuster with over $1 billion worldwide and the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. Both “Toy Story” and “Frozen” are Oscar-winning franchises, making the 2020 Best Animated Feature race one of the more exciting ones in recent years.
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“Gemini Man”
Image Credit: Paramount Ang Lee’s action movie “Gemini Man” does not look like the kind of movie that will break into the major Oscar categories, but its groundbreaking visual effects that turn star Will Smith into a 23 year old could dazzle enough to make the movie a contender for Best Visual Effects. Will Smith’s younger self is a completely digital creation like Gollum in the “Lord of the Rings” franchise and Caesar in the “Planet of the Apes” movies. Both of these series earned Best Visual Effects Oscar nominations during their runs, with the VFX work on Gollum helping “The Two Towers” and “The Return of the King” win the category. Lee’s “Life of Pi” won Oscars for Best Director and Best Visual Effects, which means no one should count out “Gemini Man” for crafts.
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